I think that the stats always have to be put in perspective in order to get a more accurate idea of what they represent. For example, only 2% of all students ever get accepted to medical school. But the ones who get accepted, that's all they wanted, they worked for it, perhaps as hard as some others who didn't, but they got in. Easily, the first time they applied and once they were in, they got a 99% chance of graduating (not many people bother getting in only to quit or fail). They don't see themselves as amazing or super-extraordinary, for them, it is a normal continuation of their efforts. They counted on it and believed that there is hardly any chance they won't get it. I agree that some people suck and don't know it. They might even be the majority especially in tasks that don't require much more than spare time, pen and paper. But some people are good and they know it also. So for these two groups, stats are very different. The first group probably has tiny chances of getting published, such as 0.2%, whereas the second group, the good group, has over 90% chance of getting published. So stats don't mean much just by themselves. It is the quality of each individual manuscript that matters. I don't know, for me, a lot of books and fiction I find on line is unreadable. It doesn't hold my attention at all, if it isn't also really annoyingly written. To me it is incomprehensible how anyone can post certain work, full of spelling and grammatical errors, illogical dialogue, rip-off storylines, just awful. When I see something like that I don't waste time, I move on. On the other hand, I come across fiction that hooks me straight away, and I have to keep reading. Since all manuscripts get at least a bit of a look, at least by some of the agents or publishers they are submitted to, if they are well written, they'll be noticed sooner or later. That's what I try to focus on instead of umbrella statistics.
You could all also technically say that only 1% of people succeed because the other 99% stopped trying.
I'm always reminded of a quote from John F. Kennedy, when he was talking about the space race versus the Soviet Union: "For while we cannot guarantee that we shall one day be first, we can guarantee that any failure to make this effort will make us last." And a quote from John Steinbeck (this is a paraphrase; I can't find the exact wording just now): "All the world's great have been like a little boy who wanted the moon; running and climbing, he sometimes caught a butterfly. But if one grows to a man's mind, he realizes that he cannot have the moon, and wouldn't want it if he could. So he catches no butterflies." Strive on, fellow writers! Catch the butterflies! If you don't try, you WILL fail.
On the other hand, you could legitimately argue that 99% of the people submitting manuscripts are wasting not only their own time, but that of the submissions editors. That 99% should give it up for everyone's sake. But you have to admire them. Whether they are completely lacking in talent or just haven't yet developed it into actual skill, they keep plugging away. True, that's not the whole 99%. Most of them will write one lousy manuscript, submit it to half a dozen publishers, and then give up and go back to the day job they hate. But some persist, despite all the rejections, whether or not they ever make the grade.
I agree with this. People quit. People are rejected. Think about it. You're responsible for 100 manuscripts. How many are you going to choose when you know you've got a budget? I'm always mentioning this sort of thing to writer friends of mine. First, I wouldn't be surprised if writers of fantasy have created more planets than already exist in, say, the Milky Way, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are more fictional murders in a year than real ones. I'm too busy "admiring" all the people who get published apparently just to SPITE talent. Heh. This is not okay. =D
Hard work almost always trumps talent. In college I would just do an assignment because I knew I'd get a B or low A with average effort, and the dumb girl next to me (and yes I called her dumb because she told people that CLEAR is her favorite color and that her idol is Britney Spears because "she's been through so much") would work her butt off and get the highest grade in the class. To quote a writer that people have mixed feelings about: “Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work.” - Stephen King
I never believe figure because I have never actually witnessed a figures being worked out. As far as I know they could be made unless of course proven otherwise.
it wouldn't surprise me at all if it were true... or even if the figure was lower than 1%, considering the number of people who write books they hope will be published... but it shouldn't matter, since if everyone let the stats discourage them, then no one would write any books at all...
Hi, There's a couple of ways to look at the stats, whether or not one percent is the actual figure. But let's say it is. First if you look at what people write and assume that some is crap and some is wonderful and you're in the middle somewhere, but believe in your work enough to put it in the top half rather then the bottom, then you are in the top fifty and your odds have doubled. Your chances are now one in fifty or two percent. Now if we subtract all those who gave up after their first attempt from our fifty which at a guess would be at least half, and you don't give up, then out of the fifty who tried you're already in the top twenty five, or put another way, your odds have now reached four percent. Now of those twenty five who keep going for a little longer, how many are going to go to the effort of getting critiques and listening to others? My guess is that that's half of who remain automatically disqualifying themselves. So go through the process and listen and learn, and you've now reached the top twelve and a half, or eight percent. You're on a role. Eight percent of course is not great, you wouldn't want to bet the house on those odds, but it's still a lot better then one percent, and of course with more effort, more diligent study and long hours writing, getting an editor and maybe cultivating some friendships with other writers, you can improve that again. As to the true figures I don't know. These are all just stabs in the dark. But the point is that you can either accept the odds as they stand or try to improve on them. That's entirely up to you. Cheers, Greg.
I'm willing to bet that almost every successfully published author out there in the real world will tell you that the statistics mean almost nothing to them. I bet that when they had their first manuscript sent into a publisher, it was one of the most nerve wrecking moments of their lives, and they still sent them in. They didn't care what the statistics were because they just wanted to have their work published. If you look at the statistics all the time, it's a pretty good bet that you will convince yourself that it isn't even worth finishing that book that you just started, let alone getting it finished, edited and sent to a publisher. I think that any writer that wants to be published needs to put their head down, ignore the so called stats, finish that book (and I mean, REALLY finish it very well) and then send it to a publisher or 1000. If it's really bad, then none of them will accept it, but if not, who knows? Besides, I thought people write, write because they love writing??? Getting published is just a huge, fat cherry on the top.
